October 05, 2025
WASHINGTON D.C. – As the United States maintains its "maximum pressure" campaigns against both Iran and Venezuela, a growing number of geopolitical analysts are advancing a theory that dismisses official explanations of national security and humanitarian concern. They argue the true objective is not about stopping nuclear programs or combating drug cartels, but about a high-stakes battle for the future of the U.S. dollar and global economic dominance.
The core of this argument lies in the immense oil wealth of the two nations. Combined, Iran and Venezuela hold approximately 30% of the world's proven oil reserves—a kingmaker's share of the global energy market. According to this perspective, controlling this supply is the ultimate prize in a broader economic conflict with rising powers.
For decades, the global oil market has been denominated in U.S. dollars, a system often referred to as the "petrodollar." This arrangement ensures a constant global demand for the dollar, cementing its status as the world's primary reserve currency and granting the United States significant economic and political leverage.
However, that dominance is now being actively challenged. Blocs like BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) have made "de-dollarization" a key strategic goal. These nations are increasingly seeking to conduct trade, particularly in energy, using their own currencies or a new basket of currencies, thereby bypassing the U.S. financial system.
"If you look at the map, the two biggest oil players outside of the U.S. and Saudi sphere of influence are Iran and Venezuela," claims an independent geopolitical strategist speaking on the condition of anonymity. "They are both actively working with China and Russia to sell their oil outside the dollar system. For Washington, this is an existential threat to the dollar's hegemony."
According to this view, if the U.S. were to gain significant influence over these nations' governments and, by extension, their national oil companies, it could mandate that their crude be sold exclusively for U.S. dollars. Such a move would pour trillions of petrodollars back into the U.S. system, effectively crippling the de-dollarization efforts of rival powers.
Proponents of this theory argue it explains the Trump administration's intense focus on these two specific countries. While official statements cite Iran's nuclear ambitions and Venezuela's authoritarian regime, critics point to the administration's aggressive economic sanctions and military posturing as evidence of a deeper motive.
"The desperation to force regime change, particularly from the Trump administration, isn't just about ideology; it's about timing," the analyst continued. "The de-dollarization train is leaving the station. If powers like China and Russia successfully create a parallel energy market that doesn't rely on the dollar, American economic leverage diminishes significantly. This is seen by some in Washington as a race against time."
Mainstream foreign policy officials have consistently rejected this analysis, stating that U.S. policy is driven by legitimate national security interests, the promotion of democracy, and the prevention of humanitarian crises. They argue that linking foreign policy decisions to a grand "petrodollar" strategy is an oversimplification that ignores the complex and dangerous actions taken by the regimes in Tehran and Caracas.
Nevertheless, as diplomatic and military pressures mount, the debate over the true motivations behind U.S. actions continues. For a growing chorus of observers, the conflicts in Venezuela and Iran are not isolated crises but rather key battlegrounds in a global war for control over the world's most vital commodity and the currency in which it is traded.